Digital Contact Tracing Applications against COVID-19: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered public anxiety around the world. So far, the evidence suggests that prevention on a public scale is the most effective health measure for thwarting the progress of COVID-19. Another critical aspect of preventing COVID-19 is contact tracing. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of digital contact tracing applications currently available in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and narrative synthesis of all literature relating to digital contact tracing applications in the context of COVID-19. We searched 3 major scientific databases. Only articles that were published in English and were available as full-text articles were selected for review. Data were extracted and narrative syntheses conducted. RESULTS: Five studies relating to COVID-19 were included in the review. Our results suggest that digitalized contact tracing methods can be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19. Three key themes were generated from this systematic review. First, the critical mass of adoption of applications must be attained at the population level before the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the solution can be increased. Second, usability factors such as access, ease of use, and the elimination of barriers are essential in driving this uptake. Third, privacy must be ensured where possible as it is the single most significant barrier against achieving critical mass. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing methods have proved to be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19 as compared to older, more labour-intensive manual methods.

The Performance of Two Rapid Antigen Tests During Population-Level Screening for SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 antigen assays offer a rapid mean to diagnose and isolate infected individuals. However, their utility in population-level screening is unknown. Objectives: The performance of two antigen tests in detecting SARS-CoV-2 was assessed among individuals randomly selected in the community. Study Design: A prospective study that performed head-to-head comparison of two SARS-CoV-2 antigen assays. Individuals were recruited during community SARS-CoV-2 screening over 10 working days. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Standard Q COVID-19 Ag test, a point-of-care chromatographic assay, was conducted immediately, and then the sample was transported to the virology laboratory to perform PCR and the LIAISON SARS-CoV-2 Ag chemiluminesence immunoassay. Results: respiratory samples from 991 individuals were collected, and 62 were positive by PCR. Inconclusive PCR results were observed in 19 samples and were excluded. The median age of participants was 40.2 years (IQR 32.3-47.8), and 932 (94%) were males. Most (77.4%) of infections were asymptomatic. The sensitivity and the specificity of the LIAISON assay were 43.3% (95%CI 30.6-56.8) and 99.9% (95%CI 99.3-100). The Standard Q assay had lower sensitivity (30.6%, 95%CI 19.6-43.7) but similar specificity (98.8%, 95%CI, 97.8-99.4). Similarly, the LIAISON assay had higher positive predictive value (96.3%, 95%CI 81-99.9% vs. 63.3%, 95%CI, 43.9-80.1%). Both assays performed better in symptomatic patients and among samples with a low-cycle threshold (Ct < 25). Conclusion: In our setting of random community surveillance, rapid antigen testing of nasopharyngeal swabs by either LIAISON SARS-CoV-2 Ag (DiaSorin) or Standard Q COVID-19 Ag (SD Biosensor) was less sensitive to detecting SARS-CoV-2 than the TaqPath COVID-19 RT-PCR.

Comparative phylodynamics reveals the evolutionary history of SARS-CoV-2 emerging variants in the Arabian Peninsula.

Emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to be responsible for an unprecedented worldwide public health and economic catastrophe. Accurate understanding and comparison of global and regional evolutionary epidemiology of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants are critical to guide current and future interventions. Here, we utilized a Bayesian phylodynamic pipeline to trace and compare the evolutionary dynamics, spatiotemporal origins, and spread of five variants (Alpha, Beta, Delta, Kappa, and Eta) across the Arabian Peninsula. We found variant-specific signatures of evolution and spread that are likely linked to air travel and disease control interventions in the region. Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants went through sequential periods of growth and decline, whereas we inferred inconclusive population growth patterns for the Kappa and Eta variants due to their sporadic introductions in the region. Non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed between mid-2020 and early 2021 likely played a role in reducing the epidemic progression of the Beta and the Alpha variants. In comparison, the combination of the non-pharmaceutical interventions and the rapid rollout of vaccination might have shaped Delta variant dynamics. We found that the Alpha and Beta variants were frequently introduced into the Arab peninsula between mid-2020 and early 2021 from Europe and Africa, respectively, whereas the Delta variant was frequently introduced between early 2021 and mid-2021 from East Asia. For these three variants, we also revealed significant and intense dispersal routes between the Arab region and Africa, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. In contrast, the restricted spread and stable effective population size of the Kappa and the Eta variants suggest that they no longer need to be targeted in genomic surveillance activities in the region. In contrast, the evolutionary characteristics of the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants confirm the dominance of these variants in the recent outbreaks. Our study highlights the urgent need to establish regional molecular surveillance programs to ensure effective decision making related to the allocation of intervention activities targeted toward the most relevant variants.

Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. RESULTS: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0-11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5-6.9, 7.0-11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. CONCLUSION: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.

Previous COVID-19 Infection and Antibody Levels After Vaccination.

Background: The emergence of new COVID-19 variants of concern coupled with a global inequity in vaccine access and distribution has prompted many public health authorities to circumvent the vaccine shortages by altering vaccination protocols and prioritizing persons at high risk. Individuals with previous COVID-19 infection may not have been prioritized due to existing humoral immunity. Objective: We aimed to study the association between previous COVID-19 infection and antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: A serological analysis to measure SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies was performed on individuals who received one or two doses of either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines in Kuwait. A Student t-test was performed and followed by generalized linear regression models adjusted for individual characteristics and comorbidities were fitted to compare the average levels of IgG and neutralizing antibodies between vaccinated individuals with and without previous COVID-19 infection. Results: A total of 1,025 individuals were recruited. The mean levels of IgG, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies were higher in vaccinated subjects with previous COVID-19 infections than in those without previous infection. Regression analysis showed a steeper slope of decline for IgG and neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals without previous COVID-19 infection compared to those with previous COVID-19 infection. Conclusion: Previous COVID-19 infection appeared to elicit robust and sustained levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in vaccinated individuals. Given the inconsistent supply of COVID-19 vaccines in many countries due to inequities in global distribution, our results suggest that even greater efforts should be made to vaccinate more people, especially individuals without previous COVID-19 infection.

Robust Antibody Levels in Both Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Individuals After BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination

The emergence of effective vaccines for COVID-19 has been welcomed by the world with great optimism. Given their increased susceptibility to COVID-19, the question arises whether individuals with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and other metabolic conditions can respond effectively to the mRNA-based vaccine. We aimed to evaluate the levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies in people with T2DM and/or other metabolic risk factors (hypertension and obesity) compared to those without. This study included 262 people (81 diabetic and 181 non-diabetic persons) that took two doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) mRNA vaccine. Both T2DM and non-diabetic individuals had a robust response to vaccination as demonstrated by their high antibody titers. However, both SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies titers were lower in people with T2DM. The mean ( ± 1 standard deviation) levels were 154 ± 49.1 vs. 138 ± 59.4 BAU/ml for IgG and 87.1 ± 11.6 vs. 79.7 ± 19.5% for neutralizing antibodies in individuals without diabetes compared to those with T2DM, respectively. In a multiple linear regression adjusted for individual characteristics, comorbidities, previous COVID-19 infection, and duration since second vaccine dose, diabetics had 13.86 BAU/ml (95% CI: 27.08 to 0.64 BAU/ml, p=0.041) less IgG antibodies and 4.42% (95% CI: 8.53 to 0.32%, p=0.036) fewer neutralizing antibodies than non-diabetics. Hypertension and obesity did not show significant changes in antibody titers. Taken together, both type-2 diabetic and non-diabetic individuals elicited strong immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine;nonetheless, lower levels were seen in people with diabetes. Continuous monitoring of the antibody levels might be a good indicator to guide personalized needs for further booster shots to maintain adaptive immunity. Nonetheless, it is important that people get their COVID-19 vaccination especially people with diabetes.

The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait.

Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden. Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness. Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.

Innovative design of 3D-printed nasopharyngeal pediatric swab for COVID-19 detection.

3-dimensional (3D) printing technology provides a solution to meet the high demand for producing adult nasal swabs. A smaller, more flexible nasopharyngeal swab needs to be developed for children and infants suspected of having coronavirus. The information shared here presents a novel 3D-printed pediatric swab for the purpose of collecting upper respiratory clinical specimens.

Factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst healthcare workers in a COVID-19 designated hospital.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the risk factors responsible for the increased infection among HCWs can mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 among HCWs and patients alike. The aim of this study is to evaluate factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare Workers. METHODS: Healthcare workers and hospital administrators were asked to participate in this cross-sectional survey study that was conducted in Jaber Al Ahmad Hospital (JAH) between August to October 2020. Participants were invited to undergo SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody testing and to complete a questionnaire targeted to factors that may be associated with acquisition of SARS-CoV-2. Descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression were done. RESULTS: 847 healthcare workers participated in the study and 20.5% of them had previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The average age of participants was 35.7 years (SD = 7.9); 52.4% were female, and 55.8% were doctors. Multivariate analysis showed that working as a nurse (adjusted OR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.15, 2.71), and wearing gloves (adjusted OR 2.93, 95% CI = 1.19, 7.22) were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection while controlling for other factors. Most personal protective equipment (PPE) were reported to be available always or most of the time, with the least available PPE item being coveralls (74.4%). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for confounding factors, being a nurse and prolonged glove use were associated with increased likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prospective cohort studies are required to further elucidate the reasons for our findings in order to minimize the transmission of infection among healthcare workers.

Probabilities of ICU admission and hospital discharge according to patient characteristics in the designated COVID-19 hospital of Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: Subsequent epidemic waves have already emerged in many countries and in the absence of highly effective preventive and curative options, the role of patient characteristics on the development of outcomes needs to be thoroughly examined, especially in middle-east countries where such epidemiological studies are lacking. There is a huge pressure on the hospital services and in particular, on the Intensive Care Units (ICU). Describing the need for critical care as well as the chance of being discharged from hospital according to patient characteristics, is essential for a more efficient hospital management. The objective of this study is to describe the probabilities of admission to the ICU and the probabilities of hospital discharge among positive COVID-19 patients according to demographics and comorbidities recorded at hospital admission. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of all patients with COVID-19 found in the Electronic Medical Records of Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital in Kuwait was conducted. The study included 3995 individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic) of all ages who tested positive from February 24th to May 27th, 2020, out of which 315 were treated in the ICU and 3619 were discharged including those who were transferred to a different healthcare unit without having previously entered the ICU. A competing risk analysis considering two events, namely, ICU admission and hospital discharge using flexible hazard models was performed to describe the association between event-specific probabilities and patient characteristics. RESULTS: Results showed that being male, increasing age and comorbidities such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and weakened immune system increased the risk of ICU admission within 10 days of entering the hospital. CKD and weakened immune system decreased the probabilities of discharge in both females and males however, the age-related pattern differed by gender. Diabetes, which was the most prevalent comorbid condition, had only a moderate impact on both probabilities (18% overall) in contrast to CKD which had the largest effect, but presented only in 7% of those admitted to ICU and in 1% of those who got discharged. For instance, within 5 days a 50-year-old male had 19% (95% C.I.: [15,23]) probability of entering the ICU if he had none of these comorbidities, yet this risk jumped to 31% (95% C.I.: [20,46]) if he had also CKD, and to 27% in the presence of asthma/COPD (95% C.I.: [19,36]) or of weakened immune system (95% C.I.: [16,42]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides useful insight in describing the probabilities of ICU admission and hospital discharge according to age, gender, and comorbidities among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kuwait. A web-tool is also provided to allow the user to estimate these probabilities for any combination of these covariates. These probabilities enable deeper understanding of the hospital demand according to patient characteristics which is essential to hospital management and useful for developing a vaccination strategy.

The impact of ABO blood groups on clinical outcomes and susceptibility to COVID-19: A retrospective study in an unselected population.

BACKGROUND: ABO blood groups have been linked to susceptibility to infection with certain microorganisms, including coronaviruses. We examined the relationship between blood group and clinical outcomes in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and compared their blood group distribution with the general population. METHODS: At the inception of the pandemic, all individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in Kuwait were admitted to one designated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital and enrolled in a prospective registry. Patients admitted from February 24 to May 27, 2020, were stratified according to blood group. As a control, blood groups of 3,730,027 anonymized individuals representing almost Kuwait's entire population were obtained from a national database. RESULTS: Of 3305 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, 37.1%, 25.5%, 28.9%, and 8.5% were groups O, A, B, and AB, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in severe clinical outcomes or death among the blood groups. However, multivariable analysis demonstrated that group A individuals had higher odds of developing pneumonia compared with non-group A (adjusted odds ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.72, p < .036). Compared with the general population, the COVID-19 cohort had a lower frequency of group O, equivalent frequency of A, and higher frequency of B and AB. No significant difference in the RhD group was found. CONCLUSION: This study supports potential involvement of the ABO blood group system in predisposing to infection with SARS-CoV-2 in an unselected population. Examination of the mechanistic link between blood group and COVID-19 and its implications on controlling the current pandemic is warranted.

Prevalence and risk factors of barotrauma in Covid-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit in Kuwait; a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The development of barotrauma has been suggested to complicate the management of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aims to identify potential risk factors associated with the development of barotrauma related complications in COVID-19 patients receiving mechanical ventilation. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was carried out in a single COVID-19 designated center in Kuwait. Three hundred and forty-three confirmed COVID-19 patients transferred and/or admitted to our institution between February 26, 2020 and June 20, 2020 were included in the study. All patients were admitted into the ICU with the majority being mechanically ventilated (81.3%). RESULTS: Fifty-four (15.4%) patients developed barotrauma, of which 49 (90.7%) presented with pneumothorax, and 14.8% and 3.7% due to pneumomediastinum and pneumopericardium respectively. Of those that developed barotrauma, 52 (96.3%) patients were in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Biochemically, the white blood cells (p = 0.001), neutrophil percentage (p = 0.012), lymphocyte percentage (p = 0.014), neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p=<0.001) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p = 0.002) were found to be significantly different in patients that developed barotrauma. Intubation due to low level of consciousness (p = 0.007), a high admission COVID-GRAM score (p = 0.042), and a positive-end expiratory pressure (PEEP) higher than the control group (p = 0.016) were identified as potential risk factors for the development of barotrauma. CONCLUSION: Patients infected with COVID-19 have a significant risk of developing barotrauma when receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. This poses a substantial impact on the hospital course of the patients and clinical outcome, correlating to a higher mortality rate in this cohort of patients.

Applying augmented reality to treat Fournier's gangrene in COVID-19 positive patients whilst safeguarding the multi-disciplinary surgical team: A case series.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 has presented the surgical community with a multitude of challenges. Patients requiring surgical intervention who are positive for COVID-19 are not only more likely to develop complications post-operatively, but also pose an increased infection risk to the surgical team involved in their care. The infection control concerns raised at the peak of the pandemic persist in the post-pandemic era as patients continue to test positive for COVID-19 and the risk of a 'second wave' looms. METHODS: We present a case series (compliant with SCARE [4] and PROCESS [5] criteria) to demonstrate the effective use of an AR technology platform during the intraoperative treatment of two complex COVID positive patients diagnosed with Fournier's gangrene.Retrospective review of prospectively collected data of all patients that required surgery involving multiple specialties during the COVID-19 pandemic at Jaber AlAhmad hospital in Kuwait between March 2020 to October 2020. PRESENTATION OF CASE: We present two cases to highlight the use of an augmented reality (AR) platform during the treatment of COVID-19 positive patients with Fournier's gangrene in order to safeguard surgical teams whilst simultaneously enabling these complex cases to benefit from multi-specialty input intraoperatively. OUTCOME: Augmented reality is a feasible option to minimize surgeons' exposure during surgery without compromising the patients safety. DISCUSSION: This case series demonstrates how AR solutions can be employed to bolster infection control measures and may be useful in the treatment of surgical patients who test positive for COVID-19. CONCLUSION: AR solutions could be considered as an infection control strategy to safeguard surgical teams operating on COVID-19 positive patients.

Prognostic Genetic Markers for Thrombosis in COVID-19 Patients: A Focused Analysis on D-Dimer, Homocysteine and Thromboembolism.

COVID-19 is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, which has infected over thirty eight million individuals worldwide. Emerging evidence indicates that COVID-19 patients are at a high risk of developing coagulopathy and thrombosis, conditions that elevate levels of D-dimer. It is believed that homocysteine, an amino acid that plays a crucial role in coagulation, may also contribute to these conditions. At present, multiple genes are implicated in the development of these disorders. For example, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FGG, FGA, and F5 mediate increases in D-dimer and SNPs in ABO, CBS, CPS1 and MTHFR mediate differences in homocysteine levels, and SNPs in TDAG8 associate with Heparin-induced Thrombocytopenia. In this study, we aimed to uncover the genetic basis of the above conditions by examining genome-wide associations and tissue-specific gene expression to build a molecular network. Based on gene ontology, we annotated various SNPs with five ancestral terms: pulmonary embolism, venous thromboembolism, vascular diseases, cerebrovascular disorders, and stroke. The gene-gene interaction network revealed three clusters that each contained hallmark genes for D-dimer/fibrinogen levels, homocysteine levels, and arterial/venous thromboembolism with F2 and F5 acting as connecting nodes. We propose that genotyping COVID-19 patients for SNPs examined in this study will help identify those at greatest risk of complications linked to thrombosis.

Low-Cost Polyester-Tipped Three-Dimensionally Printed Nasopharyngeal Swab for the Detection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Related Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Case identification, isolation, and contact tracing are fundamental strategies used to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This has led to widespread testing that interrupted the supply chain for testing materials around the world. A prospective study was conducted to compare inexpensive and easily sourced 3-dimensionally (3D)-printed polylactic acid and polyester nasopharyngeal swabs to commercially manufactured swabs for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). During the study period, 287 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized COVID-19 patients, at multiple stages of their illness, were enrolled. The median age for the study population was 47.6 years (interquartile range [IQR], 34.4 to 56.6 years), and two-thirds (67.6%) of the subjects were male. The median duration of hospitalization, at the time of sampling, was 13 days (IQR, 10 to 16 days). Overall concordance between the prototype and control swabs was 80.8% (Cohen's kappa coefficient, 0.61). Most discrepant results were due to prototype-positive control-negative results. When considering all positive results to be true positives, the prototype swab had a higher sensitivity (90.6% versus 80.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 85.7% to 94.0% and 74.7% to 85.7%, respectively; P < 0.015). The cost to produce the prototype swab was estimated to be $0.05 per swab. Polylactic acid 3D-printed polyester-tipped swabs were shown to be effective for nasopharyngeal sample collection. We believe that this design can easily be adopted in countries where commercial swabs are not readily available and can play a vital role in public health efforts for disease control in low-income countries.

A biomarker based severity progression indicator for COVID-19: the Kuwait prognosis indicator score.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic that is mild in most patients but can result in a pneumonia like illness with progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death. Predicting the disease severity at time of diagnosis can be helpful in prioritizing hospital admission and resources. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1096 consecutive patients of whom 643 met the inclusion criterion with COVID-19 from Jaber Hospital, a COVID-19 facility in Kuwait, between 24 February and 20 April 2020. The primary endpoint of interest was disease severity defined algorithmically. Predefined risk variables were collected at the time of PCR based diagnosis of the infection. Prognostic model development used 5-fold cross-validated regularized logit regression. The model was externally validated against data from Wuhan, China. RESULTS: There were 643 patients with clinical course data of whom 94 developed severe COVID-19. In the final model, age, CRP, procalcitonin, lymphocyte percentage, monocyte percentages and serum albumin were independent predictors of a more severe illness course. The final prognostic model demonstrated good discrimination, and both discrimination and calibration were confirmed with an external dataset. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a simple score calculated at time of diagnosis that can predict patients with severe COVID-19 disease reliably and that has been validated externally. The KPI score calculator is now available online at covidkscore.com.

COVID-19: Impact of obesity and diabetes on disease severity.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining the healthcare system, particularly for patients with severe outcomes requiring admittance to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study investigated the potential associations of obesity and diabetes with COVID-19 severe outcomes, assessed as ICU admittance. Medical history, demographic and patient characteristics of a retrospective cohort (1158 patients) hospitalized with COVID-19 were analysed at a single centre in Kuwait. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the associations between different variables and ICU admittance. Of 1158 hospitalized patients, 271 had diabetes, 236 had hypertension and 104 required admittance into the ICU. From patients with available measurements, 157 had body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 . Univariate analysis showed that overweight, obesity class I and morbid obesity were associated with ICU admittance. Patients with diabetes were more likely to be admitted to the ICU. Two models for multivariate regression analysis assessed either BMI or diabetes on ICU outcomes. In the BMI model, class I and morbid obesities were associated with ICU admittance. In the diabetes model, diabetes was associated with increased ICU admittance, whereas hypertension had a protective effect on ICU admittance. In our cohort, overweight, obesity and diabetes in patients with COVID-19 were associated with ICU admittance, increasing the risk of poor outcomes.

Severe ischemic complications in Covid-19-A case series.

INTRODUCTION: Covid-19 has the propensity to result in a wide array of manifestations. Recently, thromboembolic complications of Covid-19 have been denoted in literature. We report 5 cases of Covid-19 positive patients with no significant comorbidities who developed 1st time episodes of either; acute limb ischemia or bowel ischemia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study analyzing the clinical characteristics and outcomes of five Covid-19 positive patients. Five patients aged 38-60 presented to our institution from 1st April to 1st June and were diagnosed with Covid-19 pneumonia, subsequently developing severe vascular complications. None of our patients included had any history of thromboembolism nor risk factors that could justify the presentations. PRESENTATION OF CASES: Patient 1; presented with bowel ischemia as a first presentation. Patient 2 and 3 developed unsalvageable lower limb ischemia secondary to partial to complete occlusion of infra-renal aorta. Patient 4 presented with acute upper limb ischemia due to complete occlusion of the axillary and brachial artery. Patient 5 developed bilateral lower limb unsalvageable ischemia secondary to aortic bifurcation occlusion. All patients tested Covid-19 positive upon admission, and received standard care. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The thromboembolic complications seen in our cases were devastating and resulted in significant mortality and morbidity. All vessels affected were medium-large vessels. None of our cases had any significant predisposing medical conditions or history of thromboembolic or ischemic events. A high index of suspicion is necessary when evaluating such patients regardless of thromboembolic history. Appropriate anticoagulation regimens are essential. Our cases add to the currently increasing severe thromboembolic complications of Covid-19.

COVID-19 clinical outcomes and nationality: results from a Nationwide registry in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, many have flagged racial and ethnic differences in health outcomes in western countries as an urgent global public health priority. Kuwait has a unique demographic profile with two-thirds of the population consisting of non-nationals, most of which are migrant workers. We aimed to explore whether there is a significant difference in health outcomes between non-Kuwaiti and Kuwaiti patients diagnosed with COVID-19. METHODS: We used a prospective COVID-19 registry of all patients (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in Kuwait who tested positive from February 24th to April 20th, 2020, collected from Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital, the officially-designated COVID-19 healthcare facility in the country. We ran separate logistic regression models comparing non-Kuwaitis to Kuwaitis for death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and pneumonia. RESULTS: The first 1123 COVID-19 positive patients in Kuwait were all recruited in the study. About 26% were Kuwaitis and 73% were non-Kuwaiti. With adjustments made to age, gender, smoking and selected co-morbidities, non-Kuwaitis had two-fold increase in the odds of death or being admitted to the intensive care unit compared to Kuwaitis (OR: 2.14, 95% CI 1.12-4.32). Non-Kuwaitis had also higher odds of ARDS (OR:2.44, 95% CI 1.23-5.09) and pneumonia (OR: 2.24, 95% CI 1.27-4.12). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to report on COVID-19 outcomes between Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti patients. The current pandemic may have amplified the differences of health outcomes among marginalized subpopulations. A number of socioeconomic and environmental factors could explain this health disparity. More research is needed to advance the understanding of policymakers in Kuwait in order to make urgent public health interventions.